Nuggets aim to stay hot vs. Raptors
Basketball Betting Lines
01/27/2012 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The streaking Denver Nuggets aim for a sixth straight win
tonight when they host a Toronto team that expects to be without leading
scorer Andrea Bargnani.
The Nuggets are fresh off a brilliant 5-0 road trip that was capped with a
122-93 blowout win in Sacramento on Wednesday. Danilo Gallinari led seven
players in double figures with 23 points in that one as Denver recorded its
first perfect five-game trek since joining the NBA prior to the 1976-77
season.
Gallinari, who signed a contract extension earlier Wednesday, went 8-of-12
from the field and added five assists. Nene notched 16 points and Andre Miller
had 15 and 10 assists.
"We made a point not to settle for jumpers because that is a team that's
struggling defensively with their identity," said Nuggets forward Al
Harrington. "There were so many open things, so we just tried to pick one of
them and really attack and that was the rim."
Denver's ultra-quick point guard Ty Lawson left in the second quarter against
the Kings after spraining his left ankle and is expected to miss tonight's
game. He hopes to return Sunday against the LA Clippers.
Denver, which is 6-2 at the Pepsi Center this season, will finish a quick two-
game homestand against the Clips.
The Raptors, meanwhile, are coming off back-to-back impressive road wins.
Toronto improved to 2-1 on a five-game trek on Wednesday when Bargnani and
Linas Kleiza, an ex-Nugget, scored 25 points apiece as the Raptors snapped a
12-game losing streak against the Utah Jazz with a 111-106 win in double-
overtime.
It was Toronto's first win in the series since December 22, 2004.
Bargnani, who played his second game after missing the previous six with a
strained calf, scored all of his points in regulation. He played 3:55 in the
first overtime before sitting the rest of the game after aggravating the
injury, however.
"This time it's bad," Bargnani, who is averaging 23.5 ppg this season, said.
"I'm pretty sure I'm going to be out for a while."
Jose Calderon knocked down a three-pointer with 13.3 seconds remaining in
regulation for Toronto, tying the game, while Paul Millsap buried a three with
3.0 seconds left in the first overtime to knot the contest for Utah.
The back-breaker in the second overtime was Calderon's three-pointer from 10
feet behind the arc to beat the shot clock, giving Toronto a six-point lead
with 86 seconds left.
It was the second time in two days that the Raptors snapped a long losing
streak to another team. They beat Phoenix, 99-96, in Bargnani's return on
Tuesday for their first win over the Suns since February 10, 2004.
DeMar DeRozan scored 17 for Toronto, Leandro Barbosa added 13 and Calderon had
12.
"Everybody that got on the court tonight contributed and fought to win a
double-overtime game," said Raptors coach Dwane Casey.
Toronto, which has lost eight straight and 13 of 14 vs. Denver, hasn't won
three consecutive on the road since Dec. 11-18, 2007. The Raptors have dropped
seven in a row and nine of 10 contests in the Rockies.
<< Blazers welcome Suns to Rip City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Blazers haven't been much of a threat away from Rip
City this season but things have been far different when they are hitting the
hardwood in the Pacific Northwest.
Portland will shoot for its sixth straight win a
<< Thunder, Warriors collide in Oakland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Western Conference-leading Thunder will kick off a
three-game road trip tonight when they visit Oakland to take on the Golden
State Warriors.
The Thunder (15-3) won their third straight game and for the 11th
<< Improved Pacers try to pass another test in Boston
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indiana Pacers try to follow up their biggest win of
the season tonight when they head to Boston to face the Celtics at TD Garden.
Indiana picked up a big win over the Eastern Conference-leading Chicago Bulls
on Wednes
<< Magic try to rebound against Hornets
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For three quarters last night it appeared the Orlando Magic
had erased all the memories of their worst shooting performance in franchise
history in a rematch with the Boston Celtics.
But a lousy final period sent the Magic
<< Wizards try to pick up road victory in Houston
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Wizards have had trouble the past two
seasons playing well on the road and look to avoid an 0-8 start as the guest
tonight against the Houston Rockets at the Toyota Center.
The Wizards will play two straight
Mavs hope to rebound with Jazz in town >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Celebrations don't seem to be agreeing with the Dallas
Mavericks and the reigning NBA champs are probably glad they can put the
ceremonies in the rearview mirror as they get ready to host the Utah Jazz.
The Mav
Cavs and Nets meet at The Q >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Nets have yet to win consecutive games this
season. The Cleveland Cavaliers have done it just once.
Both teams will be trying to put together win streaks this evening at Quicken
Loans Arena.
The Nets have
Bogut-less Bucks visit Bulls >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been a season of frustration for Bucks center Andrew
Bogut and his latest setback will keep him out of action indefinitely. That
leaves Milwaukee a big hole in the middle this evening as it visits a Chicago
Bulls club
Wolves welcome Spurs to the Twin Cities >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Timberwolves were able to snap a 16-game
losing streak to the San Antonio Spurs when the two clubs met in early January
and shoot for a rare win streak in the series tonight at the Target Center.
The Timberwo
Sixers try to bounce back vs. bumbling Bobcats >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia 76ers try to bounce back from a rare loss
at home this evening when they welcome the hapless Charlotte Bobcats to the
Wells Fargo Center.
Philadelphia lost for only the second time in 10 tries in front of
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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